Estimated GM: Proof Of Concept

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SOW 0 Proof Of Concept

0003452: [Estim P&L / Accruals] Model based on history. Phase 1: Feasibility study

The purpose of this phase is to estimate margin of error for most basic formula that is trying to estimate current rates/tariffs.

First we consider MOT Air.

We start from calculating estimated Air sales rates based on existing data for the 1st half of the 2011.

We use these rates to estimate sales figures for CTs departed during the 2nd half of 2011. We simply calculate average rate over this period using arithmetic mean.

Finally, we calculate and present margin of error.

Results are presented as one time xls report.

Estimated Average Sales Rates Report

This estimation is based on:

  • Client / Origin / Destination unique Triples
  • Chargeable Kg amounts
  • 2011 Air Shipments

Report Conditions:

Aggregate data from DB for each unique (Client / Origin / Destination) Triple from existing CTs.

Parameters:

  • Time frame for calculating estimated rates (RTF)
    • Jan 1, 2011 < CTs with Actual Date of Dept. < June 1, 2011 (1st half of the 2011)
  • Time frame for calculating estimated sales for CTs and estimated error margin(ETF)
    • June 2, 2011 < CTs with Actual Date of Dept. < Dec 31, 2011 (2st half of the 2011)

Fields and Mappings:

part 1 - defining triple

  • A] Client = E0
  • B] Origin = Country from Airport of Departure
  • C] Destination = Country from Airport of Arrival

part 2 - defining est rate for triple

  • D] RTF Sales = sum of all sales invoices for RTF (in USD) - actual
  • E] RTF ttl ChW = total chargeable weight for all CTs during RTF
  • F] Rate = estimated rate = D divided by E

part 3 - calculating error margin for triple

  • G] Act Sales = actual sales (for ESTF)
  • Z] ETF ttl ChW = total chargeable weight for all CTs during ETF
  • H] Est Sales = estimated sales (for ESTF) = Z*F
  • I] Error, USD = G minus H
  • J] Error, % = error margin in % related to Actual sales = (I/G)*100%


Report output:

  • xls form
  • each line corresponds to one (Client / Origin / Destination) Triple
  • columns: A, B, ..., J as defined above

SOW 2

TBD

SOW 3

TBD

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