Estimated GM: Proof Of Concept
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'''Parameters''': | '''Parameters''': | ||
| - | * Time frame for calculating '''estimated rates''' (RTF) | + | * Time frame for calculating '''estimated rates''' ('''RTF''') |
** Jan 1, 2011 < CTs with Actual Date of Dept. < June 1, 2011 (1st half of the 2011) | ** Jan 1, 2011 < CTs with Actual Date of Dept. < June 1, 2011 (1st half of the 2011) | ||
| - | * Time frame for calculating '''estimated sales''' for CTs and '''estimated error margin'''(ETF) | + | * Time frame for calculating '''estimated sales''' for CTs and '''estimated error margin'''('''ETF''') |
** June 2, 2011 < CTs with Actual Date of Dept. < Dec 31, 2011 (2st half of the 2011) | ** June 2, 2011 < CTs with Actual Date of Dept. < Dec 31, 2011 (2st half of the 2011) | ||
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part 3 - calculating '''error margin''' for triple | part 3 - calculating '''error margin''' for triple | ||
| - | * G] Act Sales = actual sales (for | + | * G] Act Sales = actual sales (for ETF) |
* Z] ETF ttl ChW = total chargeable weight for all CTs during ETF | * Z] ETF ttl ChW = total chargeable weight for all CTs during ETF | ||
| - | * H] Est Sales = estimated sales (for | + | * H] Est Sales = estimated sales (for ETF) = Z*F |
* I] Error, USD = G minus H | * I] Error, USD = G minus H | ||
* J] Error, % = error margin in % related to Actual sales = (I/G)*100% | * J] Error, % = error margin in % related to Actual sales = (I/G)*100% | ||
Revision as of 21:12, 23 April 2012
Contents |
Info
- parent:
- related Requirements:
SOW 0 Proof Of Concept
0003452: [Estim P&L / Accruals] Model based on history. Phase 1: Feasibility study
The purpose of this phase is to estimate margin of error for most basic formula that is trying to estimate current rates/tariffs.
First we consider MOT Air.
We start from calculating estimated Air sales rates based on existing data for the 1st half of the 2011.
We use these rates to estimate sales figures for CTs departed during the 2nd half of 2011. We simply calculate average rate over this period using arithmetic mean.
Finally, we calculate and present margin of error.
Results are presented as one time xls report.
Estimated Average Sales Rates Report
This estimation is based on:
- Client / Origin / Destination unique Triples
- Chargeable Kg amounts
- 2011 Air Shipments
Report Conditions:
Aggregate data from DB for each unique (Client / Origin / Destination) Triple from existing CTs.
Parameters:
- Time frame for calculating estimated rates (RTF)
- Jan 1, 2011 < CTs with Actual Date of Dept. < June 1, 2011 (1st half of the 2011)
- Time frame for calculating estimated sales for CTs and estimated error margin(ETF)
- June 2, 2011 < CTs with Actual Date of Dept. < Dec 31, 2011 (2st half of the 2011)
Fields and Mappings:
part 1 - defining triple
- A] Client = E0
- B] Origin = Country from Airport of Departure
- C] Destination = Country from Airport of Arrival
part 2 - defining est rate for triple
- D] RTF Sales = sum of all sales invoices for RTF (in USD) - actual
- E] RTF ttl ChW = total chargeable weight for all CTs during RTF
- F] Rate = estimated rate = D divided by E
part 3 - calculating error margin for triple
- G] Act Sales = actual sales (for ETF)
- Z] ETF ttl ChW = total chargeable weight for all CTs during ETF
- H] Est Sales = estimated sales (for ETF) = Z*F
- I] Error, USD = G minus H
- J] Error, % = error margin in % related to Actual sales = (I/G)*100%
Report output:
- xls form
- each line corresponds to one (Client / Origin / Destination) Triple
- columns: A, B, ..., J as defined above
SOW 2
TBD
SOW 3
TBD
