Estimated GM: Proof Of Concept

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'''0003452''': [Estim P&L / Accruals] Model based on history. Phase 1: Feasibility study  
'''0003452''': [Estim P&L / Accruals] Model based on history. Phase 1: Feasibility study  
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The purpose of this phase is to estimate margin of error for most basic rates estimation formula.
+
The purpose of this phase is to estimate margin of error for most basic formula that is trying to estimate current rates/tariffs.
 +
 
 +
First we consider MOT Air.
We start from calculating estimated Air sales rates based on existing data for the 1st half of the 2011.
We start from calculating estimated Air sales rates based on existing data for the 1st half of the 2011.
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We use these rates to estimate sales for CTs departed during the 2nd half of 2011.
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We use these rates to estimate sales figures for CTs departed during the 2nd half of 2011.
 +
 
 +
We also calculate and present margin of error.
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Finally, we calculate and present margin of error.
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Results are delivered as one time xls report.
=== Estimated Average Sales Rates Report ===
=== Estimated Average Sales Rates Report ===
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'''Report Conditions:'''
'''Report Conditions:'''
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Aggregate data from DB for each unique (Client / Origin / Destination) Triple from existing CTs that satisfy:
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Aggregate data from DB for each unique (Client / Origin / Destination) Triple from existing CTs.
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* MOT = Air
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* Jan 1, 2011 < CTs with Actual Date of Dept. < Dec 31, 2011
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'''Parameters''':
'''Parameters''':
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* Time frame for calculating estimated '''rates''' (RTF)
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* Time frame for calculating '''estimated rates''' ('''TF1''')
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** Jan 1, 2011 < CTs with Actual Date of Dept. < June 1, 2011 (1st half of the 2011)
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** TF1: Jan 1, 2011 < CTs with Actual Date of Dept. < June 30, 2011 (1st half of the 2011)
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* Time frame for calculating estimated '''sales''' for CTs  and '''error margin'''(ETF)
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* Time frame for calculating '''estimated sales''' for CTs  and '''estimated error margin'''('''TF2''')
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** June 2, 2011 < CTs with Actual Date of Dept. < Dec 31, 2011 (2st half of the 2011)
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** TF2: July 1, 2011 < CTs with Actual Date of Dept. < Dec 31, 2011 (2st half of the 2011)
'''Fields and Mappings''':
'''Fields and Mappings''':
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part 2 - defining '''est rate''' for triple
part 2 - defining '''est rate''' for triple
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* D] RTF Sales = sum of all sales invoices for RTF (in USD) - actual
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* D] TF1 Sales = sum of all sales invoices for TF1 (in USD) - actual
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* E] RTF ttl ChW = total chargeable weight for all CTs during RTF
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* E] TF1 ttl ChW = total chargeable weight for all CTs during TF1
* F] Rate = estimated rate = D divided by E
* F] Rate = estimated rate = D divided by E
part 3 - calculating '''error margin''' for triple
part 3 - calculating '''error margin''' for triple
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* G] Act Sales = actual sales (for ESTF)
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* G] Act Sales = actual sales (for TF2)
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* Z] ETF ttl ChW = total chargeable weight for all CTs during ETF
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* Z] TF2 ttl ChW = total chargeable weight for all CTs during TF2
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* H] Est Sales = estimated sales (for ESTF) = Z*F
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* H] Est Sales = estimated sales (for TF2) = Z*F
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* I] Error, USD = G minus H
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* I] Error, USD = error margin in USD related to Actual sales = G minus H
* J] Error, % =  error margin in % related to Actual sales = (I/G)*100%
* J] Error, % =  error margin in % related to Actual sales = (I/G)*100%

Current revision as of 15:35, 26 April 2012


Contents

[edit] Info

  • parent:
  • related Requirements:

[edit] SOW 0 Proof Of Concept

0003452: [Estim P&L / Accruals] Model based on history. Phase 1: Feasibility study

The purpose of this phase is to estimate margin of error for most basic formula that is trying to estimate current rates/tariffs.

First we consider MOT Air.

We start from calculating estimated Air sales rates based on existing data for the 1st half of the 2011.

We use these rates to estimate sales figures for CTs departed during the 2nd half of 2011.

We also calculate and present margin of error.

Results are delivered as one time xls report.

[edit] Estimated Average Sales Rates Report

This estimation is based on:

  • Client / Origin / Destination unique Triples
  • Chargeable Kg amounts
  • 2011 Air Shipments

Report Conditions:

Aggregate data from DB for each unique (Client / Origin / Destination) Triple from existing CTs.

Parameters:

  • Time frame for calculating estimated rates (TF1)
    • TF1: Jan 1, 2011 < CTs with Actual Date of Dept. < June 30, 2011 (1st half of the 2011)
  • Time frame for calculating estimated sales for CTs and estimated error margin(TF2)
    • TF2: July 1, 2011 < CTs with Actual Date of Dept. < Dec 31, 2011 (2st half of the 2011)

Fields and Mappings:

part 1 - defining triple

  • A] Client = E0
  • B] Origin = Country from Airport of Departure
  • C] Destination = Country from Airport of Arrival

part 2 - defining est rate for triple

  • D] TF1 Sales = sum of all sales invoices for TF1 (in USD) - actual
  • E] TF1 ttl ChW = total chargeable weight for all CTs during TF1
  • F] Rate = estimated rate = D divided by E

part 3 - calculating error margin for triple

  • G] Act Sales = actual sales (for TF2)
  • Z] TF2 ttl ChW = total chargeable weight for all CTs during TF2
  • H] Est Sales = estimated sales (for TF2) = Z*F
  • I] Error, USD = error margin in USD related to Actual sales = G minus H
  • J] Error, % = error margin in % related to Actual sales = (I/G)*100%


Report output:

  • xls form
  • each line corresponds to one (Client / Origin / Destination) Triple
  • columns: A, B, ..., J as defined above

[edit] SOW 2

TBD

[edit] SOW 3

TBD

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